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News Center
US Stock Futures Higher After Bernanke Speech On Friday
By William L. Watts
U.S. stock-index futures were pointing to opening gains for Wall Street on Monday as investors continued to weigh a less dire than expected assessment of the U.S. economy by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at the end of last week and assessed the weekend damage wrought by Hurricane Irene on the East Coast.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 93 points to 11372. Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures gained 11.70 points to 1187.70, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 19 points to 2183.
The primary focus remains Bernanke's remarks at Jackson Hole, Wyo., on Friday, which saw the Fed chief stop short of promising further measures, particularly a third round of quantitative easing, or QE 3, to provide a further boost to a faltering economy.
The remarks initially spurred disappointment Friday, but markets later turned positive.
Heino Ruland, strategist at Ruland Research in Eppstein, Germany, said it was the lack of a QE3 commitment that sparked an ongoing "relief rally."
A commitment to further easing would likely have made Chinese authorities more nervous, after previous rounds of quantitative easing were blamed for pushing up commodity prices, particularly food prices, exacerbating inflation concerns, he said.
"It's a relief rally, but I wouldn't say it's a reversal," Ruland said.
Upcoming economic data, including July personal-income and consumer-spending figures and July pending home sales could undo the positive sentiment if they disappoint, rekindling worries about a weakening U.S. economy, he said.
Hurricane Irene marched up the East Coast over the weekend, killing as many as 22 people and leaving millions without power. The massive storm triggered huge floods and caused billions of dollar in property damage.
Still, the storm was less intense than feared. U.S. financial markets were expected to trade normally Monday, with major exchange operators announcing they would open for business as usual, although getting some employees to work may remain difficult as transport networks recover from the storm.
European stock markets traded higher Monday, with Greek stocks rallying on the heels of merger talk for two of the nation's largest banks.
Most Asian stock markets rose Monday, finding encouragement from Bernanke's Friday speech, although Chinese stocks were pressured on renewed worries about monetary tightening.
In Japan, lawmakers from the ruling Democratic Party of Japan on Monday chose Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda as their next leader, all but ensuring he will replace Naoto Kan to become the nation's sixth prime minister in five years.
U.S. stocks rebounded last week after a four-week global rout, adding to gains Friday after Bernanke's speech at a conference of central bankers, economists and policy makers in Jackson Hole, Wyo. Bernanke said Fed policy makers would consider their options on monetary policy at the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee in September.
Bernanke said the Fed had marked down its forecast over coming quarters but still expected "a moderate recovery" to continue and indeed strengthen over time.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended last week with a gain of 4.3% at 11284. The S&P 500 index gained 4.7% on the week to finish at 1176, while the Nasdaq Composite Index gained nearly 6% on the week to settle at 2479.
Some economists argue that any lingering hopes the FOMC will deliver a third round of quantitative easing remain misplaced.
Bernanke "very clearly offered nothing to investors looking for a hint that QE3 is imminent," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y. "Unless the sky falls in, this is not going to change."
After all, Shepherdson argued in a research note, the key arguments used by the Fed to justify its past two rounds of quantitative easing are now moot.
The Fed had argued that the measures would lower long-term borrowing rates and avoid deflation. Ten-year yields now stand at 2.2% and core inflation is at 1.8% and rising fast, he noted.
Meanwhile, economic data will remain center stage as investors attempt to determine the softness of the U.S. economy, analysts said.
Wednesday will see the release of Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) payroll data for August, followed by Thursday's round of weekly jobless claims data.
The main event, however, will be the U.S. employment report for August on Friday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by a paltry 46,000 after a less-than-impressive 117,000 rise in July.
The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 9.1%.
-By William Watts; 44 20 7842 9426; AskNewswires@dowjones.com