The worldwide incidence of cancer is expected to increase 75% by 2030, with a projected increase of more than 90% in the poorest nations, according to a new study.

Researchers at the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC, Lyon, France) collected data from 184 countries in 2008 in order to examine how current and future cancer trends vary between countries based on their levels of development, as measured by their Human Development Index (HDI). The researchers found that countries with a low HDI (mainly nations in sub-Saharan Africa) have a high incidence of cancers associated with infection (particularly cervical cancer), as well as liver cancer, stomach cancer, and Kaposi's sarcoma.

Countries with a higher HDI (such as Australia, Brazil, Russia, and the United Kingdom) have higher rates of cancers associated with smoking (lung cancer), reproductive risk factors, obesity, and diet (breast, prostate, and colorectal cancer). According to the researchers, improved living standards in countries with a lower HDI may lead to a decrease in some infection-related cancers, but these countries may see a sharp increase in the types of cancer currently seen in higher-development countries.

The researchers found that cancer incidence rates could increase by 2030 by 93% in low HDI countries and by 78% in medium HDI countries (such as South Africa, China, and India) over the same period. The researchers also found that rates of prostate cancer and female breast cancer appear to be rising in most countries with medium, high, or very high levels of HDI, and that rates of stomach cancer and cervical cancer are generally decreasing in countries with medium, high, or very high levels of HDI. The researchers predicted that if the cancer-specific and sex-specific trends continued, the incidence of all-cancer cases will increase from 12.7 million new cases in 2008 to 22.2 million by 2030.

Among the other findings of researchers was that in low HDI regions, cervical cancer was more common than both breast cancer and liver cancer. Nine different cancers were the most commonly diagnosed in men across 184 countries, with cancers of the prostate, lung, and liver being the most common; breast and cervical cancers were the most common in women. In medium HDI and high HDI settings, decreases in cervical and stomach cancer incidence seem to be offset by increases in the incidence of cancers of the female breast, prostate, and colorectum. The study was published in the June 2012 issue of the Lancet Oncology.

“Our findings suggest that rapid societal and economic transition in many countries means that any reductions in infection-related cancers are offset by an increasing number of new cases that are more associated with reproductive, dietary, and hormonal factors,” concluded lead author Freddie Bray, PhD, of the IARC, and colleagues. “Targeted interventions can lead to a decrease in the projected increases in cancer burden through effective primary prevention strategies, alongside the implementation of vaccination, early detection, and effective treatment programs.”

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