A new study predicts that if the current "obesity epidemic" continues unchecked, by 2030 50% of the US adult population will be clinically obese, with a body mass index (BMI) of 30 or higher.

Researchers at Columbia University (New York, NY, USA) examined data from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) series from 1988 to 2008, as well as the Health Survey for England (HSE) data collected in the United Kingdom from 1993 to 2008. The researchers then used a simulation model to project the probable health and economic consequences in the next two decades from a continued rise in obesity in both populations - the US and the UK. Epidemiological and outcomes data in the literature were then applied to estimate the disease burdens that would result from the growing prevalence of obesity.

The researchers found that the trends project 65 million more obese adults in the USA and 11 million more obese adults in the UK by 2030, consequently accruing an additional 6-8.5 million cases of diabetes, 5.7-7.3 million cases of heart disease and stroke, 492,000-669,000 additional cases of cancer, and 26-55 million quality-adjusted life years forgone for the US and the UK combined. The medical costs associated with treatment of these preventable diseases are estimated to increase by US$48-66 billion per year in the US and by GBP 1.9-2 billion per year in the UK by 2030. Reduced productivity would add another $390 to $580 billion to the annual tab. The study was published in the August 27, 2011, issue of the Lancet.

“The rising prevalence of obesity is a worldwide health concern because excess weight gain within populations forecasts an increased burden from several diseases, most notably cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and cancers,” concluded lead author Claire Wang, MD, and colleagues of the school of public health. “Obesity prevalence in both men and women in their 40s and 50s would approach 60%.”

It was not until the 20th century that obesity became common, so much so that in 1997 the World Health Organization (WHO; Geneva, Switzerland) formally recognized it as a global epidemic. As of 2008, the WHO estimated that 1.5 billion individuals worldwide over the age of 20 are considered obese; the rate of obesity also increases with age, at least up to 50 or 60 years old. Once considered a problem only of high-income countries, obesity rates are rising worldwide, most dramatically in urban settings. The only remaining region of the world where obesity is not common is Sub-Saharan Africa.

Guangzhou Jia Yu medical equipment Limited