Over the coming decade the population of cancer survivors over 65 years of age will increase by approximately 42%, according to a new study.

Researchers at the US National Cancer Institute (NCI; Bethesda, MD, USA) analyzed incidence and prevalence data from 9 registries of the NCI Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program to estimate survivor prevalence for 2008 and the incidence approach model method was used to project prevalence data through 2020, assuming flat cancer incidence and survival trends and dynamic US population projections. The researchers found that in January 2008 the number of cancer survivors was estimated at 11.9 million, compared to approximately 3 million in 1971, the year the US National Cancer Act was signed.

The results also showed that approximately 60% of cancer survivors were age 65 or older, and by the year 2020, the researchers estimated that 63% of cancer survivors will be age 65 or older. The most common diagnosis among cancer survivors included female breast cancer (22%), prostate cancer (20%), and colorectal cancer (9%). Lung cancer, which is by far the most diagnosed cancer in men and women, is much lower in the survivor population, standing at just 3%. The study was published in the October 2011 issue of Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention.

“We can expect a dramatic increase in the number of older adults who are diagnosed with or carry a history of cancer,” said Julia Rowland, PhD, director of the NCI office of cancer survivorship. “Cancer is largely a disease of aging, so we're seeing yet another effect of the baby boom generation, and we need to prepare for this increase.”

Improved survival and population aging converge to generate a booming population of older adult cancer survivors, many of whom have a range of multiple complex health conditions and unique survivorship needs. This demographic shift has important implications for future health care needs and costs of the US population.

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